What Are The Odds?

On this the day that hurricane Milton is set to slam into the gulf coast of Florida, a pair of stories from History.com which support the conclusion that October 9th is a day of disaster. It also leads us to the inevitable rhetorical question, “What are the odds?”

First, from 1992, the curious story of an orange 1980 Chevy Malibu in Peekskill, NY. It met an unusual fate in a young woman’s driveway, here.

 

On October 9, 1992, 18-year-old Michelle Knapp is watching television in her parents’ living room in Peekskill, New York when she hears a thunderous crash in the driveway. Alarmed, Knapp ran outside to investigate. What she found was startling, to say the least: a sizeable hole in the rear end of her car, an orange 1980 Chevy Malibu; a matching hole in the gravel driveway underneath the car; and in the hole, the culprit: what looked like an ordinary, bowling-ball–sized rock. It was extremely heavy for its size (it weighed about 28 pounds), shaped like a football and warm to the touch….

 

Second, from 1963, the tragic story of a landslide in Italy that killed thousands, here.

On October 9, 1963, a landslide in Italy leads to the deaths of more than 2,000 people when it causes a sudden and massive wave of water to overwhelm the Diga del Vajont dam. It was built in the Vaiont Gorge to supply hydroelectric power to Northern Italy. Located 10 miles northeast of Belluno, it rose 875 feet above the Piave River below and was a full 75 feet wide at its base. The construction of the dam created a large reservoir, which held more than 300,000 cubic feet of water. While the dam was solidly constructed, its location was a poor choice. The Vaiont Gorge was located in a section of the Alps known for instability. In 1963, the area experienced heavy rains….

 

We picked Ben up from DIA last night. He was lucky to make it out of Orlando on a United Flight a little earlier than planned after his work conference ended. If you’re into silver linings, the high point in Florida is 345′ above sea level. That makes it unlikely that a landslide will produce the same result there as it did in the Italian Alps 61 years ago. On the downside, it makes the probability of a storm surge in Tampa Bay that much higher. So there’s that.

If you’re stuck in central Florida today, we wish you godspeed. If you happen to own an orange 1980 Chevy Malibu, I guess you’re on your own.

 

What are the odds?
What are the odds?

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